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Jumat, 03 Juli 2015

Duet Maut CTA: SRIL PBRX (> +50%) Win vs Summer Attack! Brace For Roller Coaster Rides in H2 2015 As H1 As CTA Expected

CG: ASII TP 7150

Astra International (ASII.JK) Results: Slightly Better Earnings in 2Q15 but FY15 Earnings Expectations Are Still on the High Side

Citi's Take — Astra reported decent 2Q15 results with net profit of Rp4.0trn, up 2% QoQ but down 20% YoY and accounting for 41% of our and 43% of consensus FY15 forecasts respectively. We believe a slight consensus downward earnings adjustment is likely post 1H15 results. Operating profit reached Rp4.4trn, up 18% QoQ but -13% YoY and accounting for 40%/43% of CitiFY15E/consensus. Weak results were attributed to the weak profit on financial service (-25% QoQ and -40% YoY). On the flipside, agribusiness, (+86% QoQ), auto (+11% QoQ) and heavy equipment (+8% QoQ) divisions reported decent results.

We maintain our Neutral call on the stock as we believe that outlook for the 4W segment and automotive financing will remain tough while CPO and coal remain on a depressed territory. Catalysts will be 1) a rebound in coal and CPO prices; 2) improvement in Indonesia’s economic growth and 3) lesser competition on the 4W segment.

With best regards,
Ferry Wong, CFA
ferry.wong@citi.com
Strategy, auto, coal, media and mid-to-small cap
Head of Indonesia Equity Research
PT. Citigroup Securities Indonesia
D: +62 21 2924 9213
M: +62 812 8190 888

CLSA (KZ) - Continue to be all about results and not looking too good for the most part.
  Among those which have reported, big caps sees ASII & BBNI weak, BMRI & BBRI
  were in line to slightly weak and UNTR strong. Most of the other sector were
  inline or below; property (CTRS +ve exception), consumers (ICBP), CPO &
  cement. Might see a bit of a saving grace at the close given month end window
  dressing activities. Early flows 1.5x better buyers to start
- ETFs: EIDO-0.54% (0.182% prem), IDX-0.80% (0.151% disc) Futures: IDOA+0.46%
- ASII: weak, NP-18% YoY to Rp8.05trn, 43% of cons, 38% of CL
- UNTR: strong, NP+4% YoY to Rp3.41trn, 56% of cons, 52% of CL
- BMRI: inline to slightly weak, NP+3% YoY to Rp9.92trn, 45% of cons, 48% of CL
- BBRI: inline to slightly weak, NP+2% YoY to Rp11.95trn, 46% of cons
- INTP: inline to slightly weak, NP-8% YoY to Rp2.31trn, 45% of cons
- SMGR: weak, NP-21% YoY to Rp2.185trn, 41% of cons
- GGRM: weak, NP-11% YoY to Rp2.402trn, 42% of cons
- KLBF: slighlty weak, NP+7% YoY to Rp1.06trn, 45% of cons
- CPIN: weak, NP-23% YoY to Rp959bn, 35% of cons
- ACES: weak, NP+1% YoY to Rp248bn, 43% of cons
- INDF: weak, dragged by CPO, NP-25% YoY to Rp1.73trn, 41% of cons
- ICBP: strong, NP+28% YoY to Rp1.74trn, 56% of cons
- SIMP: weak, NP-75% YoY to Rp127bn, 22% of cons
- LSIP: weak, NP-35% YoY to Rp309bn, 36% of cons
- WIKA: weak, NP-29% YoY to Rp200bn, 29% of cons
- INCO: weak, NP-38% YoY to $41.8m, 31% of cons
- APLN: weak, NP-2% YoY to Rp351bn, 36% of cons
- CTRA: weak, NP-20% YoY to Rp479bn, 33% of cons
- CTRP: weak, NP-84% YoY to Rp20bn, 4% of cons
- CTRS: strong, NP+24% YoY to Rp308bn, 53% of cons
- BEST: weak, NP+9% YoY to Rp136bn, 38% of cons, 35% of CL
- ACST: weak, more of going forward story, NP-89% YoY to Rp5bn, 5% of cons & CL
- ELSA: weak, NP-26% YoY to Rp133bn 46% of cons, 42% of CL
- INDY: weak, loss of $7.89m from NP of $8.5m last year
- RALS: weak, NP-12% YoY to Rp91bn, 32% of cons
- BJTM: in line, NP-3% YoY to Rp524bn, 47%

2Q15 Earnings Summary (* report attached) Counter v. Consensus v. Bahana (DX)
--------------------------------
AALI IJ Below        Below     *
APLN IJ Inline       Inline
ASII IJ Below        Below     *
BBKP IJ Inline       Above
BBNI IJ Below        Below     *
BBRI IJ Inline       Below
BEST IJ n/a          Inline
BJBR IJ Inline       Below
BJTM IJ Inline       Above
CPIN IJ Below        Below
CTRA IJ Below        Below
CTRP IJ Below        Below
GGRM IJ Below        Inline
ICBP IJ Above        Above
IMAS IJ Below        Below
INCO IJ Below        Below
INDF IJ Below        Below
INTP IJ Inline       Inline
KAEF IJ Below        Below
KLBF IJ Inline       Inline
LPPF IJ Above        Above
LSIP IJ Below        Below
PWON IJ n/a          Inline
SGRO IJ n/a          Above
SIDO IJ Inline       Inline
SIMP IJ Inline       Above
SMGR IJ Below        Inline
UNTR IJ Above        Inline    *
UNVR IJ Below        Below     *
UNVR IJ n/a          Below
WIKA IJ Below        Below
WSKT IJ Above        Above
WTON IJ n/a          Below     *

BOURSE
* Wijaya Karya Realty, a subsidiary of state-owned Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ-REDUCE-IDR2,645-IDR2,500) in the property business, has postponed its IPO plans to 2016 from 2015 initially, due to unfavorable market conditions.

Economy and Industry
* The House of Reps. does not support fuel price hike as crude oil is priced below USD 50/barrel.
* Govt: 7M15 capital spending reached 13.8% of FY15 target
Can IHSG & Global Markets Survive in August From Distribution & Astrology Attacks? IHSG chart by Metatrader 5.



HIGH VOLATILITY (2 Negative ASTROs/ 3D in Technical/ 3G in Fundamental/ FOMC/ OIL/ Strong USD) di H2 2015 (Juli - Des) As H1 (Jan-June) Sesuai Dengan Prediksi CTASaham (The 1st in Indonesia yang prediksi SELLOFF di Maret & Juni).

CTA downgrade IHSG di semester 2 2015 dari peluang 1 Big Correction di semester 2, jelang kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan September (prediksi CTA sejak Januari 2015), Peluang pengetatan kebijakan moneter Bank Indonesia, crashnya indeks saham Shanghai (-28% dari high 5.150 dalam 3 pekan terakhir dejavu crash Shanghai Composite -85% di 2008; isu Grexit & the worst Outflow menjadi rekor tertinggi $ 225 miliar di bulan Mei-Juni di pasar emerging market; volatilitas harga minyak range $35 - 70; teknikal wave koreksi C to come soon & 7 gaps down dalam chart 2013-2015 vs 2 gaps up diatas 5.000; 2 signal negatif dari Moon & Solar dikombinasi dengan 3 Bear Astro Sun Mars Mercury di bulan Juni - Juli hingga Saturnus changing house ke Virgo & Venus direct to Leo into exit retrogrades), meski aksi Window dressing di September & Desember; isu resuffle kabinet Kerja Presiden Jokowi; percepatan sektor Infrastruktur; rencana stimulus fiskal pemerintah dapat menahan gejolak di pasar saham Indonesia dan dapat memberikan support kepada IHSG untuk bertahan di atas area 4.600-4.800 jika tembus menuju 4,478; dimana untuk bullish IHSG perlu ditutup di atas 5.015 guna menuju 5.350, jika break dapat mengantar ke gap 54xx/5.525 hingga 5.634/5.790 hingga akhir tahun ini.

 The 1st in Indonesia Downgrade BEAR prediksi IHSG di tahun 2016 berkat ada kemungkinan 'Black Swan' dari signal duet maut Astrology Moon vs Solar, Corrective Wave intermediate C, panasnya situasi politik dalam negeri & luar negeri (Spekulasi ekonomi China ke GDP below 6-7%; Isu Euro; Finansial Institusi AS jelang pemilu AS 2016 dejavu 2008?) ke below 4xxx & USDIDR ke level range 14.000 - 15.000 (The Best Prediction in Indonesia: BUY Calls CTA sejak 8.900 di 2010 hingga 13.400 Done di kuartal 2 2015 dari efek Currency Wars).




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