Commodity & Global News 5 Juni 2014:
By Ranjeetha Pakiam
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Avg. price in 2014 to climb 14% to
2,700 ringgit/mt vs 2,360 ringgit in 2013, says Ling Ah Hong,
director of Ganling Sdn., Malaysian research and consulting co.
• Steady demand from food and additional demand of 2m mt from Indonesia’s domestic biodiesel usage to boost prices: Ling
• NOTE: Futures in Kuala Lumpur averaged 2,632.72 ringgit ytd
• Looming supply tightness due to past and emerging dry weather will be catalyst for price movement in 2015: Ling
• Plantation companies in Indonesia and Malaysia should generally fare better in 2014 vs 2013: Ling
• Prolonged low palm oil stockpiles to drive palm oil prices
• Malaysian inventories low since mid-2013
• Indonesian reserves reportedly tight, less than 3m mt, due to lower output in 2013 and increased biodiesel usage
• With consecutive bad weather in last few yrs and emerging El Nino, stockpiles likely to remain low and below long-term trend in coming yrs, Ling says
By Yumi Teso
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Rupiah gains 0.1% to 11,883 per
dollar, snapping 5-session drop, according to prices from local
banks compiled by Bloomberg; finance minister, Bank Indonesia
governor to hold parliament discussion on 2014 revised budget.
• Pivot at 11,859; USD/IDR support at 11,826, 11,761, 11,663; resistance at 11,924, 11,957, 12,055; USD/IDR slow stochastics at 94, in overbought territory
• 1-mo. implied volatility slips 1 bp to 9.9725%; this yr’s avg is 11.2200%
• Rupiah 1-mo. forwards up 0.1% at 11,919
• Higher USD rates will be drag on currencies of countries with external deficits and rupiah will continue to underperform in Asia, given Indonesia’s recently dismal trade data, Dariusz Kowalczyk, strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, says in e-mailed interview; expects “sizable” drop in FX reserves which would pressure rupiah toward 12,000; says BI likely to intervene more heavily around that level
• Indonesia must continue mineral ore ban: Widodo’s running mate; Widodo govt would maintain budget discipline: PDI-P’s Ichsan
• Sarana Multi Infrastruktur mulls global bonds: Investor Daily
• Global investors bought net $77m in local equities yesterday: exchange data
• Yield on 8.375% govt bonds due March 2024 little changed at 8.022% yesterday, according to IDMA data
By Berni Moestafa
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Survey shows 42.4% of respondents
would choose Joko Widodo for president compared with 35.5% for
Prabowo Subianto, Populi Center said on its website yday.
• Undecided voters among respondents reach 21.6%, survey co. said
• Survey shows gap narrowing; it will be a “quite competitive” presidential election
• Survey covered 1,500 respondents across Indonesia May 24-29
By Fitri Wulandari
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Thermal coal at Newcastle port in
Australia, an Asian benchmark price, won’t fall below $70 a
metric ton, a level already close to the cost of producing and
transporting coal, traders said yesterday at a Bali conference.
“Production costs have gone up,” Michael Soerijadji, PT
Adimitra Baratama Nusantara’s marketing director, said at the
conference. “It’s really difficult to see prices going below
$70 for sustainable periods of time.”
The price at Newcastle has fallen nearly 15 percent this
year, according to data from globalCOAL, a London-based data
provider and trading platform. Prices for the power-station fuel
are $72.74 this week, it said.
Prices are getting very close to production costs for
Indonesian producers, said Edwin Tsang, marketing director at PT
Adaro Indonesia. The unit of PT Adaro Energy is Indonesia’s
second-largest producer. Further cuts in prices are “very
unlikely,” he said.
India, China Demand
China’s imports this year will be 5 million to 10 million
tons more than last year, according to Ben Burgess, director of
Avra Commodities, and Hartono Widjaja, head of sales at PT Indo
Tambangraya Megah, a unit of Thailand’s Banpu Plc. “ Where else
do you come if you can’t put your tonnage to Taiwan, Japan and
Korea? You go to China,” Burgess said at the conference.
Chinese demand for imported thermal coal has peaked,
Goldman Sachs analysts including Christian Lelong said in a note
on May 23. Demand growth will come from India, Taiwan and Korea,
he said
India’s coal consumption is still growing, Sreejith
Chalakkal, PT Bayan Resources’s marketing manager, said at the
conference.
“The biggest challenge to India’s demand growth will be
the power policy and how the new Indian government is going to
handle inflation by changing the power tariff,” Chalakkal said.
“If that’s able to be tackled and there’s change in the power
policy and an increase in tariffs, there will be a lot more coal
buying.”
NICKEL
By Claudia Carpenter
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Bets on higher prices fell 5,148 lots
to 71.7kt lots on the London Metal Exchange as of May 30,
accord. to Marex Spectron Group.
• Aluminum reverted to net long 0.3k vs net short 27.4k contracts wk earlier
• Short in copper was 1.8k lots
• Net long in lead climbed to 3.1k vs 1.7k wk earlier
• Net long was 1.1k in tin, 10.9k in zinc
• Note: Net long in nickel last wk fell for 1st time since Feb.
• Note: Marex Spectron is providing estimates of trader positions; LME itself plans to provide a commitment of traders report in Aug.
For Related News and Information:
By Millie Munshi
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- In 2016, “the Fed is likely to hike
rates at a much faster pace than currently discounted by the
market,” analysts led by Michael Haigh, the head of commodities
research, said in a report.
• Bullion to trade “well below” $1,200 next year
• “We continue to recommend selling gold rallies as we believe that gold is in a multi-year downtrend driven by the prospect of US rate hikes”
• SocGen sees copper falling toward $6,500/mt “over the coming months on rising supply and the weakening Chinese housing sector”
• The bank said it raised its outlook for soybean prices on “strong demand,” and that coffee prices are “fairly valued at current levels, for the remainder of the year”
• SocGen raised 3Q soybean forecast by 33c to $13.38/bu
By Harry Suhartono
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Jakarta Composite Index -0.4% at
midday break, heading for 2nd day of declines; 143 shrs fall, 91
rise; MSCI Asia Pacific Index -0.2%.
ADVANCERS:
• Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ) +0.5%, London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP IJ) +0.4%; palm oil will range between $800-$900 per MT this yr, Astra International President Director Prijono Sugiarto, said in interview yday; link: NSN N6NJSY6TTDS7<GO>; palm’s Aug. contract -0.5% to 2,419 ringgit/MT today ($748.34/MT)
• Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) +2.5%, bound for 3rd day of gains; Shrs -8.2% in 2014 through June 2, sending valuation to 19.2x of 12-mo. est. earnings, lowest reading since Jan. 23
DECLINERS:
• Astra International (ASII IJ) -1.4%, set for 2nd day of declines; Astra Challenged as Indonesia Slows, Coal Drops; link to story: NSN N6NJSY6TTDS7 <GO>
• Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ) -2.3%, on course for 2nd day of losses; shrs +37% this yr through June 3 to record close, sending 14-day RSI to 79.9
• Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) -1.5%, poised for lowest close since May 21; Nickel futures -0.3% in London yday, 2nd day of declines
Source By: Bloomberg News
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Avg. price in 2014 to climb 14% to
2,700 ringgit/mt vs 2,360 ringgit in 2013, says Ling Ah Hong,
director of Ganling Sdn., Malaysian research and consulting co.
• Steady demand from food and additional demand of 2m mt from Indonesia’s domestic biodiesel usage to boost prices: Ling
• NOTE: Futures in Kuala Lumpur averaged 2,632.72 ringgit ytd
• Looming supply tightness due to past and emerging dry weather will be catalyst for price movement in 2015: Ling
• Plantation companies in Indonesia and Malaysia should generally fare better in 2014 vs 2013: Ling
• Prolonged low palm oil stockpiles to drive palm oil prices
• Malaysian inventories low since mid-2013
• Indonesian reserves reportedly tight, less than 3m mt, due to lower output in 2013 and increased biodiesel usage
• With consecutive bad weather in last few yrs and emerging El Nino, stockpiles likely to remain low and below long-term trend in coming yrs, Ling says
By Yumi Teso
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Rupiah gains 0.1% to 11,883 per
dollar, snapping 5-session drop, according to prices from local
banks compiled by Bloomberg; finance minister, Bank Indonesia
governor to hold parliament discussion on 2014 revised budget.
• Pivot at 11,859; USD/IDR support at 11,826, 11,761, 11,663; resistance at 11,924, 11,957, 12,055; USD/IDR slow stochastics at 94, in overbought territory
• 1-mo. implied volatility slips 1 bp to 9.9725%; this yr’s avg is 11.2200%
• Rupiah 1-mo. forwards up 0.1% at 11,919
• Higher USD rates will be drag on currencies of countries with external deficits and rupiah will continue to underperform in Asia, given Indonesia’s recently dismal trade data, Dariusz Kowalczyk, strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, says in e-mailed interview; expects “sizable” drop in FX reserves which would pressure rupiah toward 12,000; says BI likely to intervene more heavily around that level
• Indonesia must continue mineral ore ban: Widodo’s running mate; Widodo govt would maintain budget discipline: PDI-P’s Ichsan
• Sarana Multi Infrastruktur mulls global bonds: Investor Daily
• Global investors bought net $77m in local equities yesterday: exchange data
• Yield on 8.375% govt bonds due March 2024 little changed at 8.022% yesterday, according to IDMA data
By Berni Moestafa
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Survey shows 42.4% of respondents
would choose Joko Widodo for president compared with 35.5% for
Prabowo Subianto, Populi Center said on its website yday.
• Undecided voters among respondents reach 21.6%, survey co. said
• Survey shows gap narrowing; it will be a “quite competitive” presidential election
• Survey covered 1,500 respondents across Indonesia May 24-29
By Fitri Wulandari
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Thermal coal at Newcastle port in
Australia, an Asian benchmark price, won’t fall below $70 a
metric ton, a level already close to the cost of producing and
transporting coal, traders said yesterday at a Bali conference.
“Production costs have gone up,” Michael Soerijadji, PT
Adimitra Baratama Nusantara’s marketing director, said at the
conference. “It’s really difficult to see prices going below
$70 for sustainable periods of time.”
The price at Newcastle has fallen nearly 15 percent this
year, according to data from globalCOAL, a London-based data
provider and trading platform. Prices for the power-station fuel
are $72.74 this week, it said.
Prices are getting very close to production costs for
Indonesian producers, said Edwin Tsang, marketing director at PT
Adaro Indonesia. The unit of PT Adaro Energy is Indonesia’s
second-largest producer. Further cuts in prices are “very
unlikely,” he said.
India, China Demand
China’s imports this year will be 5 million to 10 million
tons more than last year, according to Ben Burgess, director of
Avra Commodities, and Hartono Widjaja, head of sales at PT Indo
Tambangraya Megah, a unit of Thailand’s Banpu Plc. “ Where else
do you come if you can’t put your tonnage to Taiwan, Japan and
Korea? You go to China,” Burgess said at the conference.
Chinese demand for imported thermal coal has peaked,
Goldman Sachs analysts including Christian Lelong said in a note
on May 23. Demand growth will come from India, Taiwan and Korea,
he said
India’s coal consumption is still growing, Sreejith
Chalakkal, PT Bayan Resources’s marketing manager, said at the
conference.
“The biggest challenge to India’s demand growth will be
the power policy and how the new Indian government is going to
handle inflation by changing the power tariff,” Chalakkal said.
“If that’s able to be tackled and there’s change in the power
policy and an increase in tariffs, there will be a lot more coal
buying.”
NICKEL
By Claudia Carpenter
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Bets on higher prices fell 5,148 lots
to 71.7kt lots on the London Metal Exchange as of May 30,
accord. to Marex Spectron Group.
• Aluminum reverted to net long 0.3k vs net short 27.4k contracts wk earlier
• Short in copper was 1.8k lots
• Net long in lead climbed to 3.1k vs 1.7k wk earlier
• Net long was 1.1k in tin, 10.9k in zinc
• Note: Net long in nickel last wk fell for 1st time since Feb.
• Note: Marex Spectron is providing estimates of trader positions; LME itself plans to provide a commitment of traders report in Aug.
For Related News and Information:
By Millie Munshi
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- In 2016, “the Fed is likely to hike
rates at a much faster pace than currently discounted by the
market,” analysts led by Michael Haigh, the head of commodities
research, said in a report.
• Bullion to trade “well below” $1,200 next year
• “We continue to recommend selling gold rallies as we believe that gold is in a multi-year downtrend driven by the prospect of US rate hikes”
• SocGen sees copper falling toward $6,500/mt “over the coming months on rising supply and the weakening Chinese housing sector”
• The bank said it raised its outlook for soybean prices on “strong demand,” and that coffee prices are “fairly valued at current levels, for the remainder of the year”
• SocGen raised 3Q soybean forecast by 33c to $13.38/bu
By Harry Suhartono
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Jakarta Composite Index -0.4% at
midday break, heading for 2nd day of declines; 143 shrs fall, 91
rise; MSCI Asia Pacific Index -0.2%.
ADVANCERS:
• Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ) +0.5%, London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP IJ) +0.4%; palm oil will range between $800-$900 per MT this yr, Astra International President Director Prijono Sugiarto, said in interview yday; link: NSN N6NJSY6TTDS7<GO>; palm’s Aug. contract -0.5% to 2,419 ringgit/MT today ($748.34/MT)
• Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) +2.5%, bound for 3rd day of gains; Shrs -8.2% in 2014 through June 2, sending valuation to 19.2x of 12-mo. est. earnings, lowest reading since Jan. 23
DECLINERS:
• Astra International (ASII IJ) -1.4%, set for 2nd day of declines; Astra Challenged as Indonesia Slows, Coal Drops; link to story: NSN N6NJSY6TTDS7 <GO>
• Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ) -2.3%, on course for 2nd day of losses; shrs +37% this yr through June 3 to record close, sending 14-day RSI to 79.9
• Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) -1.5%, poised for lowest close since May 21; Nickel futures -0.3% in London yday, 2nd day of declines
Source By: Bloomberg News
