April Turbulence As Expected...Next A Big Bad Astrocycle To Come To Mayday...It's Not Bottoming Yet

2nd session on JCI 05.25.18

IDX 5,975.742 (+29.204 pts) (+0.491%)

(H 6,003.244) (L 5,949.522)

Value 7.34 T (RG 6.32 T) (NG 1.02 B)

Volume 7.02 B (RG 5.88 B) (NG 1.14 B) 

USD/IDR 14,168

Foreign Nett BUY: 768 B

Top value on stocks:

BBRI @ 3,120 (1.96%)

INKP @ 16,000 (4.92%)

PGAS @ 2,080 (-4.15%)

BMRI @ 7,000 (0.00%)

BBCA @ 22,550 (0.45%)

TLKM @ 3,560 (0.00%)

POOL @ 4,800 (0.21%) 

PTBA @ 3,750 (-0.27%)

Top volume on stocks:

RIMO @ 137 (2.24%)

IIKP @ 202 (10.38%)

TRAM @ 382 (-0.52%)

MYRX @ 135 (0.00%)

BUMI @ 262 (1.55%)

BKSL @ 144 (1.41%)

BBRI @ 3,120 (1.96%)

PGAS @ 2,080 (-4.15%)

Top Most Up:

HOME @ 156 (+30.00%)

CMPP @ 300 (+25.00%)

TRUK @ 535 (+24.42%)

SKBM @ 535 (+22.71%)

VINS @ 150 (+17.19%)

CAMP @ 520 (+17.12%)

VINS-W @ 48 (+14.29%)

NELY @ 134 (+13.56%)

Top Most Down:

TGRA @ 458 (-21.71%)

YPAS @ 620 (-21.52%)

SONA @ 2,750 (-14.06%)

AGRO-W @ 216 (-13.60%)

RDTX @ 5,625 (-13.46%)

FREN @ 97 (-11.82%)

MITI @ 116 (-11.45%)

IDPR @ 800 (-11.11%)

Leading Movers:

HMSP @ 3,770 (+1.89%)

BBRI @ 3,120 (+1.96%)

BBNI @ 7,975 (+3.91%)

INKP @ 16,000 (+4.92%)

CPIN @ 3,750 (+4.75%) 

INTP @ 18,450 (+3.94%)

BBCA @ 22,550 (+0.45%)

KLBF @ 1,370 (+3.79%)

Lagging Movers:

UNVR @ 46,800 (-2.70%)

TPIA @ 5,800 (-2.52%)

PGAS @ 2,080 (-4.15%)

FREN @ 97 (-11.82%)

BRPT @ 2,220 (-3.06%)

EXCL @ 2,280 (-1.72%)

INDY @ 3,670 (-2.13%)

IMAS @ 2,930 (-4.56%)

Net Buy Stocks by Foreign:

BBRI @ 3,091 (227.34 B)

INKP @ 15,923 (158.75 B)

UNTR @ 37,663 (88.57 B)

PTBA @ 3,797 (84.29 B)

BBCA @ 22,506 (52.46 B)

ASII @ 7,190 (52.28 B)

BBNI @ 7,806 (40.41 B)

SMGR @ 8,759 (24.59 B)

Net Sell Stocks by Foreign:

PTPP @ 2,602 (24.67 B)

UNVR @ 47,017 (20.80 B)

PNLF @ 218 (17.75 B)

BBTN @ 2,961 (17.67 B)

INDF @ 6,932 (16.23 B)

TKIM @ 13,225 (11.64 B)

BTPN @ 3,443 (10.05 B)

WSKT @ 2,297 (9.94 B)

BNI Sekuritas

 Top Southeast Asian Fund Sees More Zing From Pulp Stocks*

2018-05-25 02:40:20.736 GMT

By Harry Suhartono

*(Bloomberg) -- One of the best bets PT Sinarmas Asset Management has made recently has been on demand for packaging from the booming global online retail scene.*

*Wagering that increased online sales would drive demand for packaging, the Jakarta-based asset management firm bought shares of PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper and PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiw Kimia.*

The companies’ shares have surged as much as 9-fold in the past year, while a benchmark index for pulp has climbed to a record.

“Consumption is rising for recyclable paper for retail use and packaging for e-commerce deliveries,” Jamial Salim, a director at Jakarta-based Sinarmas Asset, which has 23 trillion rupiah ($1.63 billion) in assets under management, said in an interview. “Demand is expected to stay strong.”

Three equity mutual funds managed by Sinarmas are among Southeast Asia’s top five performers this year, with each rising by at least 27 percent as the Jakarta Composite Index sank more than 5 percent. 

Tjiwi Kimia shares have surged by about 350 percent, while Kiat Pulp and Paper has climbed by more than 180 percent this year, helped in part by regulations in China to control recycled paper imports.

*“China’s policy to restrict waste paper imports has sharply boosted demand for wood pulp,” Gregorius Gary, an analyst at PT Bahana Sekuritas in Jakarta, said by phone.*

*“The situation favors Indonesian paper companies as they are among the biggest producers in the world. As long as there’s no reversal in China’s policy I expect the positive trend to continue.”*

To contact the reporter on this story:

Harry Suhartono in Jakarta at hsuhartono@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:

Teo Chian Wei at cwteo@bloomberg.net

Margo Towie, Kurt Schussler

*******

*BRIS* optimis jadi Bank Syariah terbesar

PT Bank BRIsyariah Tbk atau BRIsyariah, resmi tercatat sebagai emiten baru di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dengan kode efek BRIS. BRIS adalah emiten ke 11 yang mencatatkan saham perdana di BEI pada 2018 sekaligus emiten bank syariah dengan status anak perusahaan bank BUMN yang pertama.

BRIsyariah melepas 2.623.350.600 lembar saham baru atau sebesar 27% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh setelah penawaran umum perdananya.

Melalui IPO, BRIsyariah optimis jadi bank syariah terbesar https://www.alinea.id/bisnis/melalui-ipo-brisyariah-optimis-jadi-bank-syariah-terbesar-b1Uzb9bvx

*Reminder MSCI*

MSCI global index

+ INKP

- EXCL

MaSCI global small cap

+ TRAM

- DILD WTON TOPS INAF KIJA

Effective 30 May after market closed

BN 05/25 01:40 *SAMSUNG FAVORS INDONESIAN BANK, CONSUMER STOCKS: RICHARDSON

BN 05/25 01:40 *SAMSUNG ASSET MANAGEMENT'S RICHARDSON COMMENTS ON INDONESIA

BN 05/25 01:40 *SAMSUNG ASEAN EQUITY FUND UPGRADES INDONESIA TO OVERWEIGHT

________________________________________

*Asean Top Performing Fund Raises Indonesian Stocks to Overweight*

2018-05-25 01:54:07.465 GMT

By Harry Suhartono

(Bloomberg) -- *Indonesian stocks raised to overweight* fr Underweight at *Samsung Asean Equity Fund* amid stabilizing capital market and currency outlook, according to Alan Richardson, investment manager at Samsung Asset Management.

* Samsung Asean is among best performing funds in the region with 5-year performance beating 94% of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg

* Fund favors Indonesian consumer and banking stocks: Richardson

** *Top picks include Bank Negara Indonesia, Bank Rakyat* *Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Ace Hardware, Indofood Sukses Makmur*

*and Gudang Garam*

* Richardson expects 15% return from Indonesia in dollar term

** “Indonesia capital markets to stabilize now, supported by U.S. Fed’s tolerance for gradual rate hikes with the aim of raising inflation expectations while Indonesian central bank now focused on stabilizing the rupiah currency.”

** Year-to-date drop in Indonesian stocks already priced-in capital markets volatility, led by rising U.S. interest rates and stronger dollar

* NOTE: May 24, Indonesian Stocks Storm Back as Foreigners

Return to Market (2)

ASEAN Strategy - Tactical allocation and portfolio changes

Upgrading Indonesia to Overweight; downgrading Malaysia to Neutral

 

Equity Strategy

Chetan Seth, CFA 

Higher US bond yields and US$ have weighed on ASEAN equities’ performance

We believe our thesis of higher volatilityamid rising US bond yields and thus some compression in equity multiples in ASEAN is already playing out with more vulnerable markets in ASEAN (Indonesia, Philippines – both twin deficits) underperforming within the region. While the trend of higher US bond yields could persist in the near term (our US Rates team expects US10Y yields toapproach 3.25%), we upgrade our 3-6 month tactical allocation on Indonesian equities to Overweight (from Underweight). We fund this by downgrading Malaysian equities to Neutral, within the ASEAN context.

Upgrade Indonesia to Overweight; downgrade Malaysia to Neutral

We upgrade Indonesian equities to Overweight (from Underweight). We believe weaker IDR (amid higher US bond yields, higher oil prices) has been a key concern for most investors, but with Bank Indonesia’s commitment to stabilise IDR via a rate hike –and commitment to keep macroeconomicstability – equity investor confidence should improve and foreign equity outflows should moderate; meanwhile, relative and absolute equity valuations have become attractive, suggesting better risk-reward even though we see some modest downside to current consensus earnings estimates.

We cut our rating on Malaysian equities to Neutral. While the political and economic situation remains fluid after recent political changes, we believe a Neutral equities allocation is far more justified given near-term uncertainty and incrementally negative news flow on the removal of GST and re-introduction of fuel subsidies, which could be a drag on the fiscal situation, potentially GDP and earnings growth rates. However, we are reluctant to be Underweight as we hope that the new government will come out with policies which address the fiscal concerns as well as embark on reforms which potentially could improve investor sentiment in the medium term. We retain our Overweight on Singapore (reasonable valuations, positive earnings revision, defensiveness and higher dividend yields). We remain Neutral on the Philippines. While relative and absolute valuations appear attractive, and the BSP has started a rate hike cycle to address rising inflation (our team expects another two 25bps hikes), we see more room in multiple compression. We retain our Underweight on Thailand largely due to high market valuations and our reluctance to chase oil/petrochem stocks (>30% of index) after the rally in oil.

Changes to our ASEAN model portfolio

We are refreshing our ASEAN model portfolio weights (Fig. 43). Key changes:

Add: HMSP IJ, BURSA MK, SIME MK, BDMS TB, SMPH PM, SPOST SP.

Remove: AXIATA MK, SCGB MK, CIMB MK, INDF IJ, BCH TB, BEAUTY TB, DMC PM.

Factors to watch: Reversal in oil prices, US yields or US$, as well as re-emergence of trade wars, in our view, could shift relative performance within ASEAN equities quite significantly favouring Indonesia and Philippines over Singapore and Malaysia.

Nomura

Market Now! IHSG & Rupiah imbas bad cycle 14-22 Mei (rawan extended 23-26 Mei) mengacuhkan kenaikan BI 7DR 25 bsp & kenaikan Indeks global ini. Lihat last idr ihsg calls CTA! #astrocyclectasaham #cycle #technicalanalysis #fundamental #flow #ihsgcta #ihsg #usdidr #usd

Market Now! Trading BBRI (hit gap black circle 2.950 chart 19/3) TLKM (3.300) WIKA (BO 1.415) IHSG triple bottom intraday by Cycle & Technical Analysis #ihsgcta #chartctasaham #stockpickctasaham #astrocyclectasaham #seminarctasaham #usdidr #ihsg #tlkm #bbri #wika

“Marhaban Ya Ramadhan”

Mohon maaf lahir bathin. Selamat Menunaikan Ibadah Puasa. Semoga kita selalu diberkahi dibulan yang penuh maghfirah .

Di saat market 📈📉. memang diperlukan analisa teknikal yang 3s (simple sophisticated super).

Dimana salah satu fund terbesar di Indonesia & satu satu anak usaha emiten terbesar (Top 3) di Bursa Efek Indonesia, ikut mempelajari market behaviour, cycle & technical analysis level basic (how to see market bottom & pick the best stock picks) dalam 3 hari training di sepekan ini.

Terima kasih atas kepercayaan memilih kami dari PT. BNI Sekuritas. Semoga bermanfaat & salam sukses selalu 🙏.

#trainingtechnicalanalysisBNIsekuritas #technicanalysis #bnisekuritas46#saham #obligasi #reksadana #etf
#bpjsketenagakerjaan
#ilcstelkom

Market Now! Weak IDR & Trade Balance data sebelum BI meeting 17 Mei https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20180515105853-17-14947/impor-meroketdefisit-neraca-dagang-april-terburuk-sejak-2014?utm_source=notifikasi&utm_campaign=browser&utm_medium=mobile …. Buy the outperform, TLKM near CTA target (Chart 20 Maret). #ihsgcta #chartctasaham #chartctafx #stockpickctasaham #astrocyclectasaham #trading #swing #seminarctasaham #usdidr #ihsg



Market Now! IHSG anomali (Sempat hit 5.853 low: 14 Mei) berkat bad astrocycle pekan ini (ekspektasi CTASaham pekan lalu) vs Regional Asia Dow Futures (Big positive)Pray For Surabaya Pray For Indonesia 🙏. 1) http://m.bisnis.com/market/read/20180512/190/794227/perdagangan-saham-sepekan-i; 2) https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20180513172836-4-14725/bei-optimistis-bom-surabaya-tak-berdampak-besar-ke-ihsg, 3) http://m.bisnis.com/market/read/20180513/7/794287/proyeksi-ihsg-awal-pekan-bakal-tembus-6.000; 4) http://m.bisnis.com/market/read/20180513/191/794290/bni-sekuritas-rekomendasikan-4-saham-ini

Market Now! IHSG below 5.768, AISA Buy BO 500-525-565 exit 590, BBTN 2.650-2.880 DFAM 480-505 ARKA 660. Volatile ahead! 3 Days before WS CTASaham Advanced Jakarta 12-13 May. #ihsgcta #chartctasaham #stockpickctasaham #astrocyclectasaham #trading #swing #seminarctasaham

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Where are we now? #investmentquotesctasaham #investing #investment #interestrates #economy #cycle #seminarctasaham #seminarctafx

BBTN. The one & only chart to catch short term bottom dari BBTN (sebelumnya INTP ADRO HMSP...ASII BBRI TLKM UNVR IHSG done 📈📉).

BBTN: trend bearish, distribusi selama below 3.030. BBTN prefer Akumulasi BUY di (range target lingkaran merah) 2.620-2.650 (1)or BUY di atas 2.760/2.880 target 3.030, stop loss below 2.410 gap.

#chartctasaham #stockpickcta #stockpickctasaham #banking #bbtncta #bbtn#technicanalysis #candlestick #trading #swingtrading #chartnexus #fibonacci#patterm #dowtheory #seminarctasaham

HMSP saham terkoreksi 42% dari rekor tertinggi di 5.550, PER 31.5x, breakdown pola Head & Shoulder to meet target 3.510/ 3.230 then 3.075/2.820 gap. Trend bearish & fase distribusi selama below 3.510 dalam kondisi oversold. Medterm resist di 3.940/4.200. HMSP prefer Akumulasi BUY 1).3.270-3.230 target 3.340/3.450/3.510 then Buy on next support gap 3.075/2.820 selama diatas 2.820/2.590.

#chartctasaham #stockpickcta #stockpickctasaham #consumer #hmspcta#hmsp #technicanalysis #candlestick #chartnexus #fibonacci #patterm#dowtheory #seminarctasaham

3 Mei. Pola yang mirip dengan CRASH INTP (3 April rekomendasi BUY CTASaham 👍). ADRO breakdown pola head & shoulder 1.900 TP 1.440/1.200 selama below 1.770 Gap. Target short term 📉 di 1.570-1.610. Resist gap 1.760/1.880/2.140. Support gap 1.595/1.470/1.205. Rekomendasi: Cicil BUY bertahap 1.600 (1) & 1.510 (2) - 1.320 (3) untuk Trading & Swing selama di atas 1.130.

#chartctasaham #stockpickcta #stockpickctasaham #adrocta #adro #coal#technicanalysis #ganncta #fibonacci #candle #gap #seminarctasaham#advancetechnicalanalysis