MAY DAY OR MAY BULL: VOLATILITY IS BACK AFTER CONSOLIDATION IN APRIL

Investor Sambut Kebijakan New Normal, IHSG Naik 1,78% ke 4.626,8


Artikel ini telah tayang di Katadata.co.id dengan judul "Investor Sambut Kebijakan New Normal, IHSG Naik 1,78% ke 4.626,8" , https://katadata.co.id/berita/2020/05/26/investor-sambut-kebijakan-new-normal-ihsg-naik-1-78-ke-4626-8?utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=Bursa_Lia

IHSG back for Bull di awal pekan di tengah penguatan Wall Street & Asia pagi ini.

Dapat THR dari happy trading profit from home di hari terakhir perdagangan saham dari 6 saham pilihan CTASaham yang telah dipublish di IG & Socmed lainnya, BNI Sekuritas & grup Telegram CTASaham.

Sebelumnya IHSG reversal dari 4.460 low pekan lalu untuk rebound dari bad astrocycle into good astrocycle Edisi How Long Can You Go Part 1 - 5, Sell On Rumor Buy On News (Earnings, GDP, BI rate dll) terbukti sukses

#BBRI: Masih selama di atas 5-10 Day MA & diatas low 2.160. meski Distribusi selama below 2.900-3.110 (60 Day MA). BUY ON WEAKNESS.

#BMRI: Masih selama di atas 5-10 Day MA & diatas low 3.660. meski Distribusi selama below 4.570-5.180 (60 Day MA). BUY ON WEAKNESS.

#BRIS: Masih selama di atas 5-10-20-60 Day MA & diatas low 224. meski Distribusi selama below 352/381 (60 week MA). SWING BUY.

#GIAA: Masih selama di atas 5-10 Day MA & diatas trendline support triangle di 175-180. meski Distribusi selama below 262-298. SWING BUY.

#HMSP: Masih selama di atas 5-10-20 Day MA & diatas support low 1.490-1.410. meski Distribusi selama below 1.935-2.440 (60 week MA). SWING BUY.

#LPPF: Masih selama di atas 5-10 Day MA & diatas support low 1.08-1.160. meski Distribusi selama below 1.540-1.765. BUYON WEAKNESS.

VIDEO THR 2020 in TWITTER:
https://twitter.com/andri_zakarias/status/1264816853907501056?s=20


VIDEO THR 2020 in FACEBOOK:
https://web.facebook.com/andri.zakarias/posts/1930584247072421

Rekap LK Emiten 1Q20 vs 1Q19

*BANK & FINANCE*

• BBRI Rp8.16t vs Rp8.16t

• BBNI Rp4.25t vs Rp4.07t

• BDMN Rp1.24t vs Rp933m

• BNGA Rp1.05t vs Rp944m

• NISP Rp791m vs Rp765m

• BTPN Rp752m vs Rp507m

• PNBN Rp684m vs Rp802m

• MEGA Rp669m vs Rp484m

• BNII Rp538m vs Rp415m

• ADMF Rp520m vs Rp462m

• BBTN Rp457m vs Rp723m

• BJTM Rp439m vs Rp405m

• BJBR Rp417m vs Rp419m

• BTPS Rp402m vs Rp288m

• BFIN Rp328m vs Rp337m

• TURI Rp125m vs Rp160m

• CFIN Rp93.2m vs Rp79.6m

• BRIS Rp75.1m vs Rp30.0m

• BBKP Rp53.6m vs Rp54.7m

• MCOR Rp33.2m vs Rp11.4m

• PNBS Rp5.34m vs Rp5.15m

• BABP Rp3.89m vs Rp3.08m

• BNLI Rp1.74m vs Rp377m

• BBHI Rp488jt vs Rp9.92m

• ARTO -Rp25.4m vs -Rp6.03m

*TELCO, TECH & MEDIA*

• EXCL Rp1.52t vs Rp57.2m¹

• SCMA Rp311m vs Rp399m

• TBIG Rp228m vs Rp218m

• MLPT Rp33.1m vs Rp19.5m

• GHON Rp16.6m vs Rp14.6m

• CENT Rp12.1m vs Rp8.66m

• BALI Rp8.92m vs Rp11.9m

• ASGR Rp2.33m vs Rp25.6m

• EMTK -Rp157m vs -Rp72.2m

• ISAT -Rp606m vs -Rp292m

*CONSUMER & PHARMACY*

• HMSP Rp3.32t vs Rp3.28t

• GGRM Rp2.45t vs Rp2.35t

• ICBP Rp1.98t vs Rp1.34t

• UNVR Rp1.86t vs Rp1.75t

• INDF Rp1.40t vs Rp1.35t

• MYOR Rp931m vs Rp466m²

• KLBF Rp669m vs Rp595m

• SIDO Rp231m vs Rp209m

• MLBI Rp140m vs Rp239m

• ROTI Rp77.8m vs Rp64.8m

• KINO Rp57.8m vs Rp306m

• CLEO Rp35.4m vs Rp25.3m

• TCID Rp7.79m vs Rp71.5m

• PYFA Rp4.37m vs Rp1.88m

• INAF -Rp21.4m vs -Rp21.8m

*RETAIL*

• ERAA Rp103m vs Rp47.4m

*PROPERTY & RELATED*

• BSDE Rp259m vs Rp618m

• JRPT Rp207m vs Rp224m

• CTRA Rp177m vs Rp283m

• DUTI Rp131m vs Rp239m

• MMLP Rp25.2m vs Rp34.3m

• SMDM -Rp1.16m vs Rp14.1m

• PJAA -Rp10.4m vs Rp10.1m

• SSIA -Rp17.4m vs -Rp10.9m

• BEST -Rp226m vs Rp95.4m

*CONSTRUCTION*

• TOTL Rp60.9m vs Rp67.3m

• NRCA Rp28.0m vs Rp29.3m

• ADHI Rp14.5m vs Rp75.5m

• ACST -Rp124m vs -Rp90.7m

*INFRASTRUCTURE RELATED*

• PGAS $47.8jt vs $65.1jt

• SMGR Rp446m vs Rp268m

• AKRA Rp228m vs Rp201m

• SMCB Rp68.4m vs -Rp123m

• IPCM Rp32.3m vs Rp25.8m

• BNBR -Rp279m vs Rp36.8m

*AUTO & HEAVY EQUIPMENT*

• ASII Rp4.81t vs Rp5.21t

• UNTR Rp1.82t vs Rp3.05t

• AUTO Rp115m vs Rp159m

*MANUFACTURING*

• SRIL $28.2jt vs $28.0jt

• ARNA Rp65.7m vs Rp55.7m

• ESSA $1.03jt vs $4.80jt

• JECC Rp7.37m vs Rp16.8m

• NIKL -$10.1jt vs $2.24jt

• FASW -Rp324m vs Rp420m

*TRADE & SERVICES*

• MIKA Rp199m vs Rp183m

• EPMT Rp176m vs Rp132m

• MPMX Rp66.1m vs Rp107m

• BIRD Rp13.7m vs Rp88.7m

*OIL & MINING RELATED*

• ADRO $98.2jt vs $119jt

• PTBA Rp903m vs Rp1.14t

• BYAN $35.5jt vs $84.2jt

• INCO $28.9jt vs -$20.2jt

• ITMG $15.4jt vs $39.7jt

• MDKA $14.9jt vs $20.3jt

• PTRO $4.21jt vs $3.09jt

*AGRICULTURE & POULTRY*

• CPIN Rp922m vs Rp811m

• AALI Rp371m vs Rp37.4m

• JPFA Rp344m vs Rp311m

• LSIP Rp81.0m vs Rp38.6m

• BISI Rp24.3m vs Rp75.2m

• MAIN Rp14.1m vs Rp91.3m

• SIMP -Rp51.9m vs -Rp31.3m

• BWPT -Rp143m vs -Rp254m

• SMAR -Rp1.41t vs Rp479m

¹ Ada penjualan menara Rp1.62t;

² Ada laba selisih kurs Rp605m;

DAILY STOCK ANALYSIS CTASAHAM. IHSG +3.45 point di 4.511.08 kenaikan pertama sejak 11 Mei. Foreign net sell Rp Rp 669 miliar.



WEEK AHEAD! Peta terbaru penguasa market cap bursa http://https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-anjlok-195-begini-peta-terbaru-penguasa-market-cap-bursa Sentimen IHSG di pekan depan
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ini-sederet-sentimen-yang-akan-mempengaruhi-pergerakan-ihsg-di-pekan-depan https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ini-sederet-sentimen-yang-akan-mempengaruhi-pergerakan-ihsg-di-pekan-depan




What is Happening To Indonesia Big Bank Stocks?







INTERMARKET TRADING WEEKLY Use Fundamental Analysis: WHAT TO BUY! Use Technical Analysis: WHEN & WHERE TO BUY!





Saat ekonomi sedang sulit, saham-saham ini bisa dilirik
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/saat-ekonomi-sedang-sulit-saham-saham-ini-bisa-dilirik

Analis prediksi IHSG lanjutkan pelemahan di pekan depan, apa alasannya?
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/analis-prediksi-ihsg-lanjutkan-pelemahan-di-pekan-depan-apa-alasannya

Ada net sell Rp 1,65 triliun, simak lagi saham-saham yang dilepas asing di pekan lalu
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ada-net-sell-rp-165-triliun-simak-lagi-saham-saham-yang-dilepas-asing-di-pekan-lalu

Simak jadwal lengkap pembagian dividen TGKA, AKRA, SDRA, TOWR dan EPMT
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/simak-jadwal-lengkap-pembagian-dividen-tgka-akra-sdra-towr-dan-epmt

IHSG turun 2,52% sepekan ini, asing masih mencatat net sell jumbo
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-turun-252-sepekan-ini-asing-masih-mencatat-net-sell-jumbo

Ini 10 saham net buy terbesar asing pada perdagangan Jumat (8/5)
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ini-10-saham-net-buy-terbesar-asing-pada-perdagangan-jumat-85

Ini 10 saham net sell terbesar asing pada perdagangan Jumat (8/5)
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ini-10-saham-net-sell-terbesar-asing-pada-perdagangan-jumat-85

Tekanan Jual Asing Bikin IHSG Babak Belur, Saat Asia Hijau
https://cnbcindonesia.com/market/20200508151703-17-157163/tekanan-jual-asing-bikin-ihsg-babak-belur-saat-asia-hijau?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=oa&utm_content=cnbcindonesia&utm_campaign=cmssocmed

EFEK COVID-19 TERHADAP GDP INDONESIA Q1 2020 & PROSPEK GDP GLOBAL FY 2020.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia kuartal I 2020 hanya sebesar 2,97%. Kepala BPS Suhariyanto menyebut, angka tersebut merupakan pertumbuhan kuartalan terendah sejak 2001.

Artikel ini telah tayang di Katadata.co.id dengan judul "Ekonomi Kuartal I Terendah dalam 19 Tahun, Pertanian Nyaris Tak Tumbuh" , https://katadata.co.id/berita/2020/05/05/ekonomi-kuartal-i-terendah-dalam-19-tahun-pertanian-nyaris-tak-tumbuh#click=https://t.co/44ONxgmOpz



HOW LONG CAN YOU GO PART 3! 
Konsolidasi IHSG & Rupiah di bulan April ↘️↗️, dukung sentimen masih imbang antara isu positif dari obat Covid19 (wait for vaccine), program buy back, stimulus & kebjjakan bank sentral global, earning report Q1 2020, masih di batasi foreign sell April Rp 8.75 triliun (IHSG +5.61%), weak momentum ekonomi Q1, momentum 9 sektoral di IHSG mixed, penurunan harga komoditas, pandemi Covid19 di Indonesia (no sign of peaking; semoga cepat berakhir 🙏) & hingga isu ketegangan U.S vs China trade.

Momentum penguatan IHSG di bulan Mei masih fragile (setelah CTA buy call IHSG 3.930 akhir Maret TP 4.930 DONE & saham blue chip (average return diatas 40%/saham), masih bisa rally ↗️ selama closing weekly diatas 4.317-4.441, dengan trigger resistance di 4.975 (untuk analisa cycle & astrogann hanya ada di grup member CTASaham). Next support: 4.147/3.911, Resist: 5.200/5.386. 

Mayday or Maybull tergantung dari perkembangan penemuan obat / vaksin covid19, data GDP q1 Indonesia (5 Mei) BI meeting Current account trade balance hingga foreign reserve, isu trade U.S vs China, earning report, program buy back & deviden.  Fokus ke saham bank big caps properti konstruksi (Buy on weakness), consumer (farmasi & food), basic industry (poultry kimia kertas), Infra (4 telco, coal), commodity (coal energi). Semoga happy cuan trading investasi & sukses selalu 🙏🤲

Bank Mandiri Cut to Hold at Indo Premier Securities

(Bloomberg) -- Indo Premier Securities analyst Jovent Muliadi cut the recommendation on Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT to hold from buy.

• PT set to IDR4,700, implies a 9.6% increase from last price. Bank Mandiri average PT is IDR6,477.22.
• Targets range from IDR4,200 to IDR10,100

• Bank Mandiri had 25 buys, 6 holds, 0 sells previously: Bloomberg data

Indonesian Developers to Face Heightened Issues on Outbreak: S&P

(Bloomberg) -- Heightened refinancing and liquidity challenges await rated Indonesian developers as sales weaken amid wide-scale social restrictions and traveling curbs due to virus outbreak, according to S&P Global Ratings.

• Most rated developers already face weakened credit quality, higher debt and eroding liquidity as result of muted marketing sales and steady investments over past years
• Covid-19 outbreak will delay developers’ ability to improve their credit profile while they struggle with greater liquidity stress and refinancing risk, say credit analysts Simon Wong and Christina Lim in report on Monday
• Rated developers’ aggregate marketing sales in 2020 est. to decline by 30% on assumption that wide- scale social restrictions will gradually ease from end June in greater Jakarta area and in Surabaya, which is Indonesia’s second-largest city
  • High degree of uncertainty remains as outbreak continues to deepen in Indonesia
• All 5 rated developers expected to report negative discretionary cash flow in 2020, ranging from negative 250b rupiah to negative 2t rupiah
• S&P sees developers to be on full cash preservation mode and rein back discretionary spending, but it may still prove insufficient to stabilize liquidity positions through 2020
• Marketing sales seen returning gradually to normal only from 1Q 2021
• Refinancing requirements for the sector also seen growing over next two years
  • Included are $115m and $370m for Alam Sutera Realty maturing in April 2021 and April 2022, respectively, and $150m for Modernland Realty maturing in Aug. 2021
• S&P sees refinancing risks have heightened for Alam Sutera and Modernland
• Access to offshore capital markets, which these developers used to depend on for capital raising and refinancing, could remain shut for longer period due to pandemic

Kalbe Farma Cut to Hold at Indo Premier Securities; PT IDR1,450

(Bloomberg) -- Indo Premier Securities analyst Kevie Aditya cut the recommendation on Kalbe Farma Tbk PT to hold from buy.

• PT set to IDR1,450, implies a 5.1% increase from last price. Kalbe Farma average PT is IDR1,464.57.
• Targets range from IDR1,080 to IDR2,000

• Kalbe Farma had 21 buy, 5 holds, 3 sells previously: Bloomberg data

Kalbe Farma Cut to Hold at Ciptadana; PT IDR1,420

(Bloomberg) -- Ciptadana Sekuritas analyst Robert Sebastian cut the recommendation on Kalbe Farma Tbk PT to hold from buy.

• PT set to IDR1,420, implies a 2.9% increase from last price. Kalbe Farma average PT is IDR1,450.65.
• Targets range from IDR1,080 to IDR2,000

• Kalbe Farma had 21 buy, 5 holds, 3 sells previously: Bloomberg data

Upcoming Catalysts

• Next annual meeting: May 18

Unilever Indonesia Raised to Buy at UOB Kay Hian; PT IDR9,400

(Bloomberg) -- UOB Kay Hian analyst Stevanus Juanda raised the recommendation on Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT to buy from hold.

• PT set to IDR9,400, implies a 15% increase from last price. Unilever Indonesia average PT is IDR8,589.38.
• Targets range from IDR6,200 to IDR10,390

• Unilever Indonesia had 17 buys, 11 hold, 3 sells previously: Bloomberg data

SSIA IJ Cut to Neutral at RHB Research Institute; PT IDR406

(Bloomberg) -- RHB analyst Christopher Benas cut the recommendation on Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT to neutral from buy.

• PT set to IDR406, implies a 43% increase from last price. Surya Semesta Internusa average PT is IDR629.
• Targets range from IDR300 to IDR1,150

• Surya Semesta Internusa had 8 buys, 4 holds, 1 sell previously: Bloomberg data

Upcoming Catalysts

• Next annual meeting: May 14

Kino Indonesia Cut to Hold at Kresna Graha Sekurindo

(Bloomberg) -- Kresna Securities analyst Robertus Hardy cut the recommendation on Kino Indonesia Tbk PT to hold from buy.

• PT set to IDR3,200, implies a 11% increase from last price. Kino Indonesia average PT is IDR3,199.
• Targets range from IDR2,395 to IDR4,680

• Kino Indonesia had 3 buys, 2 holds, 1 sell previously: Bloomberg data

Astra Intl. Raised to Buy at Kresna Graha Sekurindo

(Bloomberg) -- Kresna Securities analyst Robertus Hardy raised the recommendation on Astra International Tbk PT to buy from hold.

• PT set to IDR4,235, implies a 16% increase from last price. Astra Intl. average PT is IDR5,329.67.
• Targets range from IDR3,800 to IDR9,000

• Astra Intl. had 22 buys, 4 holds, 2 sells previously: Bloomberg data

Bukit Asam Raised to Trading Buy at Mirae Asset Daewoo

(Bloomberg) -- Mirae Asset Daewoo Co.,Ltd. analyst Andy Gunawan raised the recommendation on Bukit Asam Tbk PT to trading buy from hold.

• PT set to IDR2,160, implies a 19% increase from last price. Bukit Asam average PT is IDR2,310.59.
• Targets range from IDR1,360 to IDR4,880

• Bukit Asam had 13 buys, 7 holds, 4 sells previously: Bloomberg data

Ramayana Lestari Cut to Hold at Indo Premier Securities

(Bloomberg) -- Indo Premier Securities analyst Kevie Aditya cut the recommendation on Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT to hold from buy.

• PT set to IDR550, implies a 4.3% decrease from last price. Ramayana Lestari average PT is IDR571.27.
• Targets range from IDR384 to IDR2,100

• Ramayana Lestari had 11 buy, 11 hold, 2 sells previously: Bloomberg data

Mayora Indah Raised to Add at CIMB; PT IDR2,400

(Bloomberg) -- CIMB analyst Patricia Gabriela raised the recommendation on Mayora Indah Tbk PT to add from hold.

• PT set to IDR2,400, implies a 12% increase from last price. Mayora Indah average PT is IDR2,371.15.
• Targets range from IDR1,900 to IDR2,930

• Mayora Indah had 14 buys, 3 holds, 0 sells previously: Bloomberg data

Thermal Coal Market Needs Supply Cuts for Prices to Rebound: MS

(Bloomberg) -- Seaborne thermal coal market requires permanent supply cuts for prices to rebound as Covid-19 lockdowns sap demand for power, Morgan Stanley said in a May 4 note.

• NOTE: Newcastle coal futures settled at $52.40/ton Friday, down 27% from a high on March 27
• Bank sees growing downside risk to its 2H forecast of $62/ton, analysts Marius van Straaten and Susan Bates wrote
• Power demand in countries with full lockdown has declined by more than 20%, with coal taking a larger hit due to lower running costs of renewable capacity
• Demand may only return gradually as lockdowns ease, and a portion of demand might be lost altogether
• Importers such as China and India are giving priority to burning domestic coal to support local mining industry
• Despite many miners being helped by lower oil prices and weaker producer currencies, more than 40% of seaborne supply is currently cash negative
• Exports from the U.S. and Indonesia are seen most likely to be cut