Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 12-07 (Refresh)

2nd SESSION JCI on 12.07.12
(By: Gita Adiwoso - D'Origin)

IHSG @ 3984.12 (-35.01 pts) (-0.87 %)
(H: 4013.37 ; L: 3963.47)
Value:    4.079 T (NG 488 B )
Volume: 6.558 B (NG  1.212 B )
Foreign Nett Sell 157  B  
Incl. Crossing:
BJTM @ 437 ~ 130 B (D vs D)
USD/IDR: 9446 (On Shore)
                   9450 (Off Shore)

JCI for Next Monday:
Support:      3944 ; 3927
Resistance:  4027 ; 4050

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
FINANCE.  (-0.37%) (1.101 T )
MANUFACTUR (-1.58%) (913.72 B )
TRADE.   (-0.33%) (599.04 B )
INFRASTRUC (+0.07%) (516.09 B )
MINING.    (-2.20%).    (487.68 B )
CONSUMER (-1.29%)(359.62 B )

7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNers
TLKM. @ 8474 (51.13 B )
BDMN. @ 6081. (22.62 B )
LSIP.    @ 2876 (21.82 B )
MNCN. @ 2008 (20.36 B )
PGAS. @ 3641. (19.50 B )
MSKY @ 1530. (19.50 B )
BMRI.   @ 7000 (18.65 B )

7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNers
ASII.    @ 6706.  (135.13 B )
SMGR @ 11412. (61.69 B )
PTBA @ 14899 (58.03 B )
UNTR @ 21702 (55.17 B )
CPIN.   @ 3125.   (27.82 B )
ADRO @ 1373.   (25.85 B )
BJTM @ 452.    (24.56 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BJTM @ 440.   (+2.33%)
ASII.    @ 6650. (-2.21%)
BBCA. @ 7450 (+1.36%)
BBRI.   @ 6550. (-2.24%)
TLKM @ 8450 (0.00%)
BMRI.  @ 7050. (0.00%)
UNTR @ 21700 (-1.81%)
PTBA @ 14900 (-3.56%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
BJTM. @ 440 (1.093.119 Lot)
ELTY.  @ 69.   (335.542 Lot)
GAMA @ 158. (316.524 Lot)
TRAM @ 820 (254.570 Lot)
ENRG.  @ 139.  (221.916 Lot)
SIPD.    @ 54.   (151.206 Lot)
UNSP.  @  190 (133.222 Lot)
ADRO @ 1370 (127.541 Lot)

*INDONESIA'S JUNE DOMESTIC AUTO SALES AT 101,743 UNITS
*INDONESIA'S JUNE DOMESTIC MOTORCYCLE SALES AT 541,918 UNITS

*INDONESIAN ECONOMY MAY GROW 6.5% THIS YEAR, KURODA SAYS
*INDONESIA GROWTH TO ACCELERATE NEXT YEAR, ADB'S KURODA SAYS

Indonesia 2012 Banks’ Loan Growth May Be 25%-26%, Warjiyo Says

*INDONESIAN ECONOMY TO GROW 6 PERCENT IN 2012, SAYS WORLD BANK

ADB Cuts Developing Asia’s Growth Forecasts as India, China Slow

Multistrada Expects First-Half Sales Rise of 25%, Kontan Reports

IHSG Turun 0,8% ke 3.984,12. Foreign net sell Rp157,03 miliar.
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881925/ihsg-turun-08-ke-398412

Asing Ambil Untung, IHSG Anjlok 35 Poin
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/07/12/155740/1963878/6/asing-ambil-untung-ihsg-anjlok-35-poin

Harapan QE3 memudar, bursa Eropa negatif
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harapan-qe3-memudar-bursa-eropa-negatif/2012/07/12

Ciputra Surya Raih Marketing Sales Rp1,1 Triliun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881935/ciputra-surya-raih-marketing-sales-rp11-triliun

Garap Kawasan Industri, ELTY Ajak Investor China
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881932/garap-kawasan-industri-elty-ajak-investor-china

Harga CPO tersungkur makin dalam
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-cpo-tersungkur-makin-dalam

Harga minyak masih dekati level tertinggi 2 hari
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-masih-dekati-level-tertinggi-2-hari

IHSG di Bawah Wedge, Beli Saham Jadi Menakutkan
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881928/ihsg-di-bawah-wedge-beli-saham-jadi-menakutkan

Bursa Asia pun Terpuruk
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881920/bursa-asia-pun-terpuruk

Juni, INCO Hitung Cadangan Nikel di Luwu Timur
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881910/juni-inco-hitung-cadangan-nikel-di-luwu-timur

Blue Bird Mantap Garap Batu bara
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881886/blue-bird-mantap-garap-batu-bara

Rigs Tenders Raih Kredit Stanchart Bank US$20 Jt
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881879/rigs-tenders-raih-kredit-stanchart-bank-us20-jt

Dolar Makin Perkasa ke Rp 9.277 di Triwulan II-2012
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/07/12/143620/1963766/6/dolar-makin-perkasa-ke-rp-9277-di-triwulan-ii-2012

BI Rate Masih Nangkring di 5,75%
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/07/12/120743/1963580/5/bi-rate-masih-nangkring-di-575
 
Indonesian Power-Station Coal Swaps Decline, China Prices Fall

Indonesian Stocks: Adaro, Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa, Bisi
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-12/indonesian-stocks-adaro-bank-pembangunan-daerah-jawa-bisi.html

Barclays Cuts 2012 Commodity Price Ests., Mining EPS Outlooks

*INDONESIA REFERENCE RATE 5.75%; SURVEY 5.75%, 20 ECONOMISTS
*BANK INDONESIA SEES BI RATE CONSISTENT WITH INFLATION TARGET:BI
*BANK INDONESIA SEES INFLATION AT 3.5%-5.5% FOR 2012,2013

Top Rupiah Forecaster Sees 6% Drop on Trade Gap: Southeast Asia

*FITCH: STABILITY MECHANISM NOT STICKING TO EURO SOVEREIGN CDS

AKR Corporindo Drops Most in Nearly 3 Wks After Estimate Cut 

PENUTUPAN SESI I
Tiga saham big caps yang merontokkan IHSG
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/tiga-saham-big-caps-yang-merontokkan-ihsg

Ramai Aksi Jual, IHSG Anjlok 43 Poin
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/07/12/114757/1963554/6/ramai-aksi-jual-ihsg-anjlok-43-poin

Listing Perdana
Saham Perdana Bank Jatim Menguat 40 Poin
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/07/12/094023/1963329/6/saham-perdana-bank-jatim-menguat-40-poin

Terinfeksi Pengaruh Global, IHSG Longsor 43 Poin
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881813/terinfeksi-pengaruh-global-ihsg-longsor-43-poin

H2, Bahana Tangani 3 Penawaran Umum Obligasi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881815/h2-bahana-tangani-3-penawaran-umum-obligasi

IHSG Melandai, Sell on Strength Enam Saham!
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881775/ihsg-melandai-sell-on-strength-enam-saham

Pelayaran Nelly dan Providen Agro Siap Listing
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881777/pelayaran-nelly-dan-providen-agro-siap-listing

Semester Dua, Mandiri Sekuritas Tangani 2-3 IPO
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881772/semester-dua-mandiri-sekuritas-tangani-2-3-ipo

Diincar Investor, Bank Jatim Akan Dikerek ke Rp800
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881724/diincar-investor-bank-jatim-akan-dikerek-ke-rp800

H1, Bank Jatim Salurkan Kredit Rp18 T
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1881819/h1-bank-jatim-salurkan-kredit-rp18-t

Cowell Development akan menebar dividen Rp 3,332 M
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/cowell-development-akan-menebar-dividen-rp-3332-m/2012/07/12

Berlian menjual 4,226 miliar saham miliknya
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/berlian-menjual-4226-miliar-saham-miliknya/2012/07/12

Kontrak emas dalam dollar laris manis di BKDI
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/kontrak-emas-dalam-dollar-laris-manis-di-bkdi

Tak ada sinyal stimulus, harga emas melorot lagi
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/tak-ada-sinyal-stimulus-harga-emas-melorot-lagi/2012/07/12

Outlook kinerja kinclong, saham JSMR diburu
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/outlook-kinerja-kinclong-saham-jsmr-diburu/2012/07/12

Mandiri Sekuritas akan tangani IPO Semen Baturaja
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/mandiri-sekuritas-akan-tangani-ipo-semen-baturaja

Kalbe kejar kontribusi 25% dari bisnis minuman
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/kalbe-kejar-kontribusi-25-dari-bisnis-minuman

Rights issue Kimia Farma terganjal
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/rights-issue-kimia-farma-terganjal

BTN rights issue Rp 2 triliun di kuartal III ini
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/btn-rights-issue-rp-2-triliun-di-kuartal-iii-ini

Volatile-sideways, saham apa yang dilirik?
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/volatile-sideways-saham-apa-yang-dilirik/2012/07/11

Dikepung kabar buruk, Wall Street rontok
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/dikepung-kabar-buruk-wall-street-rontok/2012/07/11

HARGA BUYBACK EMAS ANTAM NAIK RP4.000/GRAM, HARGA JUAL TURUN RP1.000/GRAM
http://m.bisnis.com/articles/harga-buyback-emas-antam-naik-rp4-dot-000-slash-gram-harga-jual-turun-rp1-dot-000-slash-gram

12 July 2012 Bahana Beacon – SpotlightBank Jatim (BJTM-BUY-IDR430-TP:IDR650)Simply solidGaining from strong East Java presence with 55% market shareAs East Java’s only regional bank, Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur (BJTM), has benefited from the region’s payrolls of civil servants, of which 55% have exposure to the bank’s credit lines with low gross NPL of less than 0.1%. Increases in loans to civil servants are expected from both existing debtors and new hires. Combined with increased salary base, higher debt-to-income coverage and longer loan maturity will ensure growth in civil servants loans, which will remain as the earnings backbone for the bank going forward. Dominated by loans to civil servants, multipurpose loans worth IDR9t with an average loan size of around IDR50m, account for approximately 55% of 1Q12 total loan portfolio and 58% of conventional loans.

2013 P/BV of 1.0x on 18% earnings growth; BUY on 51% upsideAssuming a loan growth target of between 20-23%, LDR of 85-95% and gross NPL of below 1.5%, we are confident that BJTM’s projected earnings will grow by 18.1% y-y to IDR1.1t. This translates to 2013 P/E of 6.0x and P/BV of 1.0x at IPO price. Based on 2013 P/BV of 1.5x or some 40% discount to the sector’s average of 2.6x, we derive our target price of IDR650. Hence, on significant share price upside potential coupled with high dividend payout ratio of up to 55%, we initiate coverage on BJTM with a BUY.

Top Picks for the Day...

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) (KO3 Commodity, Kong Seh Siang) - A big crash ahead despite bullish news?

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) has been trending in line with our previous call for a largest rebound since the fall from the April high of 3,607 (see 21st June issue). Prices have rebounded in a ragged manner and are also confined within parallel lines, supporting our view that this is only a rebound and not the start of a new uptrend. Recently we have seen a spate of 'bullish' news from increase chances of El Nino to poor weather in the US, which led to a big rally in grain prices around the world. Even in Malaysia, CPO inventory hit a 'low' of 1.69m tones, which is perceived to be supportive for prices. We have reasons to believe that the rebound from the 3607 low could potentially be over. Prices have risen to its previous fourth wave level of 3,193 and there is a completed 3-wave move, rebounding to the minimum 38%FR. Prices failed to move past its 200-day SMA and have also fallen below its uptrend channel support yesterday, which could be a prelude to further weaker prices in the days ahead. Unless CPO continues to warp into a more complex rebound in the weeks ahead, we may have seen the peak for wave II. If that is the case, then prices are poised to fall hard, likely to take off at least RM800 from current levels. It could potentially cut more than RM1,200 in the coming months if the 2,843 low gives way. If prices take the alternative route, then we should see a pullback in the coming weeks before one more push towards its 50-62%FR at 3,225-3,315 to complete wave II. The gap at RM3,234-3,265 is another potential stopping area for the impending rebound. Note: For the longer term, we are still bearish on CPO, targeting RM2,434 and below once the current rebound ends.

Trades of the Day...

Fundamentally:

CIMB mempertahankan rating Bank Central Asia (BBCA) pada NEUTRAL dengan target harga Rp8800. BBCA telah transformasi dibandingkan beberapa tahun yang lalu untuk adaptasi kondisi yang berubah. BBCA mulai mengejar kredit secara agresif namun tetap prudent. Kredit KPR dan korporasi naik 45% & 43% pada 1Q12 dan menjadi lokomotif. Bunga kredit yang lebih rendah juga memungkinkan BBCA untuk memilh debitor yang lebih berkualitas. Prediksi kami adalah pertumbuhan kredit sebesar 25-30% tahun ini yang lebih cepat dari sektor, sehingga menaikan LDR dan menurunkan reserve requirement. BBCA juga cukup fokus pada electronic delivery channels sehingga menaikan fee income, yang sekitar 20% dari total income.

Technically:

Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA IJ; Rp 1030) – BUY

Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ; Rp 190) – SELL

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*DJ Telkom CEO: Acquisitions Overseas Will Boost Revenue

Telkom Plans to Buy Stakes in Myanmar, Vietnam Telco -CEO

--PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia CEO says the company is looking to snap up stakes in Myanmar, Vietnam telcos

--Telkom executive says participation in overseas companies can boost revenue --Indonesian heavyweight is cash rich with $1.2 billion in the bank

--Telkom expects 2012 revenue to increase by up to 8%

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MASA

Multistrada Expects First-Half Sales Rise of 25%, Kontan Reports

2012-07-12 00:41:42.438 GMT

By Novrida Manurung

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Co. expects sales increase from 1.38t rupiah a year earlier as tire-sales rise to 6.1m units in first six months, Kontan reports, citing Director Uthan Arief Sadikin.

* Co. plans to build plant in Kazakhstan with capacity production 3m per year: report

Brazil cuts key rate to new low of 8%

Bank of Korea surprises with a 0.25 point rate cut to 3%

MOODY'S: Peringkat Bakrie Plantations naik jika lunasi obligasi 15 Juli ⁠ (20:08)

JAKARTA: Lembaga pemeringkat Moody’s Investor Service memberi sinyal akan meningkatkan rating PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk dan anak usaha bila obligasi senilai US$150 juta dilunasi tepat waktu pada 15 Juli.

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DANA BUYBACK saham Global Mediacom baru tersalurkan 23% ⁠ (17:07)

JAKARTA: Realisasi dana untuk pembelian kembali (buyback) saham yang dialokasikan PT Global Mediacomm Tbk baru mencapai 23,03%. Global Mediacomm telah menggelontorkan dana senilai Rp391,44 miliar untuk melakukan buyback.

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Gading Investasi Hotel Rp60 Miliar

Koran Sindo

Di sisi lain, perusahaan pengembang properti yang berkode GAMA ini mencatatkan sahamnya (listing) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) kemarin. Pada perdagangan perdana,saham GAMA langsung meningkat signifikan sebanyak 45 poin setara dengan 42 ...

http://www.seputar-indonesia.com/edisicetak/content/view/510154/

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Ciputra Property Buy Back 189,8 Juta Saham

Koran Sindo

http://www.seputar-indonesia.com/edisicetak/content/view/510157/

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SMGR Raih Penghargaan Finance Asia

Koran Sindo

Sekretaris Perusahaan Semen Gresik Agung Wiharto menambahkan, penghargaan Most Committed to a Strong Dividend Policymenunjukkan konsistensi Semen Gresik untuk memberikan returnyang maksimal kepada para pemegang saham. Secara ...

http://www.seputar-indonesia.com/edisicetak/content/view/510156/

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RIGS: PT Rig Tenders Indonesia Tbk, penyedia jasa logistik pertambangan, mendapatkan kucuran dana pinjaman dari Standard Chartered Bank senilai maksimal US$20 juta. Pinjaman tersebut akan digunakan untuk melunasi sebagian kewajiban perseroan.

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GIAA: PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk, emiten BUMN penerbangan, mendapatkan kontrak sponsor untuk tim sepakbola Inggris yaitu Liverpool FC. Pada 9 Juli, perseroan telah menandatangani partnership agreement dengan The Liverpool Football Club and Athletic Grounds Ltd,

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SMDR: Beredar kabar di kalangan pasar modal bahwa PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk. akan mendapatkan kontrak kerja dengan salah satu perusahaan pertambangan dari China selama dua tahun ke depan melalui anak perusahaannya.

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ASIAPLAST INDUSTRIES Lakukan Buyback 3,56 Juta Saham

Bisnis Indonesia

Seperti diketahui, pada akhir Mei 2012, emiten berkode saham APLI itu telah mendapatkan persetujuan pemegang saham untuk buyback 10% saham publik dengan harga maksimal Rp100. Setelah aksi korporasi itu, kepemilikan saham publik akan menjadi ...

http://www.bisnis.com/articles/asiaplast-industries-lakukan-buyback-3-56-juta-saham-1

12 Juli-Listing Ipo Bank Jatim(Jumlah yg ditawarkan : 2,98 miliar saham baru (20% dri modal), dg nominal Rp250 per unit. Harga 430 Penjamin : PT Bahana Sec. + PT Mandiri Sek.)
-BI rate
- Exercise warrant BACA (100), exercise Budi 1:1 (125),
-BANK WINDU KENTJANA INT L WARRANT, RASIO 1:1 TRADE


-Cum Dev TSPC RP 75,
-Cum Dev LION RP 300,
-Cum Dev LMSH RP 100,
-Cum Dev TIRA RP 17,
-Cum Dev CLPI RP 27,1,
-Cum Dev EKAD 7,
-Cum Dev INTA 22,5
- Cum Dev MRAT RP 16,3


- Initial Claims, Continuing Claims,
Export Prices ex-ag.,
Import Prices ex-oil,
Treasury Budget

[Dow Jones] The USD/IDR extends early gains to 9,455 vs 9,445
late Tuesday in Asia as investors turn risk averse on renewed concerns over
Italy's debt problems, dealers say. Still, trading volume is thin as many
companies in Jakarta are closed for the city's mayoral election. Dealers tip
the pair to trade in a 9,440-9,460 band Thursday. Investors widely expect Bank
Indonesia to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% at its monthly-rate
setting meeting Thursday. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)

[Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end up 0.2% at 4019.133 in light
volume, as foreigners buy select telecommunication and bank blue chips on
expectations of strong first-half earnings, traders say. They expect the market
to continue to gain Thursday and find resistance at 4050. "Foreign funds'
extended buying will likely drive the main index higher Thursday," says a
trader with a local securities firm. Foreigners are net buyers of IDR263
billion worth of shares; they were net sellers of IDR531 billion worth of
stocks in the past two sessions. Among gainers, heavyweight Telkom (TLKM.JK) is
up 2.4% at IDR8,450 and Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) is up 1.4% at IDR7,050.
Profit0taking hits coal miner Bumi (BUMI.JK), down 1.8% at IDR1,120.
(edhi.pranasidhi@dowjones.com)